Showing posts with label Federal Reserve. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Federal Reserve. Show all posts

Monday, December 15, 2014

The Fed released its 3rd quarter report today.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization


US Manufacturing production capacity and utilization are improving and are now at the level of pre-recession levels of factory output.
Industrial production increased 1.3 percent in November after edging up in October; output is now reported to have risen at a faster pace over the period from June through October than previously published. 
In November, manufacturing output increased 1.1 percent, with widespread gains among industries. 
The rise in factory output was well above its average monthly pace of 0.3 percent over the previous five months and was its largest gain since February. In November, the output of utilities jumped 5.1 percent, as weather that was colder than usual for the month boosted demand for heating. The index for mining decreased 0.1 percent. At 106.7 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in November was 5.2 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.8 percentage point in November to 80.1 percent, a rate equal to its long-run (1972–2013) average

Robert Oak has an analysis: (bold is mine) {he also made some nice charts}
Industrial production is on fire with a 1.3% November gain.  Even better, the Federal Reserve Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization report shows upward revisions all the way back to June 2014.   October was revised from a -1.0% decline to 0.1% growth.  This month gains were across the board,, another good sign for the economy.  Manufacturing alone grew by 1.1% and utilities jumped up 5.1% from October.  Mining, which includes oil, decreased by just -0.1%.  The sudden jump up in utilities is due to colder weather if one recalls the great freeze taking over the country in November.  The G.17 industrial production statistical release is also known as output for factories and mines.  This is the largest industrial production monthly gain since October 2005.






Friday, April 17, 2009

Show us your bottom

We all are desperately looking for the bottom. We know the rise out will take some time. But. at least let us hit bottom. There seem to be some glimmers of hope, but I think they are still just noise in the data. Here is some good (good?) news from the Philadelphia Fed.
The contraction in manufacturing in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic area slowed in
April as as result of a less severe deterioration in new orders and labor
conditions, a regional Federal Reserve survey released on Thursday showed.

Job losses continue....

Monday, November 17, 2008

Industrial Production Facts

Related to my prior post, I want to provide some definitions to help with understanding the data provided by the Federal Reserve Statistical Release.

What does the Industrial Production index cover?

The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.

Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries–logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing–that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector.


Where does the data come from?
On a monthly basis, the individual indexes of industrial production are constructed from two main types of source data: (1) output measured in physical units and (2) data on inputs to the production process, from which output is inferred. Data on physical products, such as tons of steel or barrels of oil, are obtained from private trade associations and from government agencies; data of this type are used to estimate monthly IP wherever possible and appropriate. Production indexes for a few industries are derived by dividing estimated nominal output.

All of the juicy details are here.

Industrial Production Increased in October?

Industrial production increased 1.3% in October, according to the Federal Reserve. This result follows a 3.7% decline in September.

However, the 1.3% increase is month over month, so the October result just reflects a return to more normal operations affected in September by hurricanes Gustov and Ike in the Gulf of Mexico and the Boeing strike.
Excluding these special factors, total industrial production is estimated to have fallen around 2/3 percent in both September and October.

At 107.3 percent of its 2002 average, total industrial production in October was 4.1 percent below its level of a year earlier. The capacity utilization rate for total industry rose to 76.4 percent in October, a level 4.6 percentage points below its average level from 1972 to 2007.
Hardest hit, construction supplies (-7.0%) and business equipment (-8.0%)
You can look at the whole thing here.