Is Play-Doh Penis a Design Flaw?

W have seen the scandalous pictures of the Play-Doh penis.

And the HEADLINES were awesome.  Many parents were OUTRAGED.

Looking at the Play-Doh facebook page adds some perspective, though:

A lot of people had no problem with the toy. Many were perplexed at the heights of emotion some adults reached over the perception that the Play-Doh extruder resembled a penis, in some ways.

The question is, did this ever come up during design reviews? Or in the prototype shop?  Or in the production approval process?   I mean, if you look at the pictures the toy's dickishness could have been toned down a bit.

Sometimes there is no accounting for customer tastes.  In the end the Play-Doh parent company Hasbro has offered to replace the toys for any scandalized adults and will change the design for future sales.

They Cannot Read Me in China

Reports of Google's blockage in China, and partial recovery, continue.
I know Plantrat cannot currently be read.

Google's Transparency Report shows the drop off in Google traffic in China from Dec 27.

Transparency Report 30Dec2014

When I checked with some readers they still could not see Plantrat.  Google's data does not show a significant change, although Google states it is early data and subject to change.

Blogger Traffic

Dodge Trucks, Clutch Switches, and Springs

Chrysler (now Fiat Chrysler Automobiles - FCA) has announced a recall of some 2006-2007 Dodge trucks:

An investigation by FCA US engineers discovered switches in certain model-year 2006 and 2007 pickups may be equipped with spring wire that differs from wire used in previous switches. The alternate wire may break and, as a result, the vehicles may not start. In rare cases, a vehicle may – if recommended starting procedures are not followed – exhibit unintended movement when its ignition key is turned.

The recall covers certain Dodge Dakota, Dodge Ram 1500, 2500, 3500 and Mitsubishi Raider pickups. Switches with the alternate wire were not used in any vehicles produced before July of 2005, or after June of 2006. The Dakota and Raider are no longer in production. (The latter was built for Mitsubishi under terms of an assembly contract.) 

Reading the NHTSA investigations page, Chrysler has decided to recall certain manual transmission applications. (NHTSA Action Number: PE14013)

Chrysler's Safety Report states that: 1) the clutch ignition interlock switch return springs may experience fatigue failure due to material issues; 2) if the return springs are broken, the switch contacts may not reflect actual clutch pedal position; and 3) the failures could result in a vehicle experiencing unintended movement if the ignition is cranked when the clutch pedal is not being pressed. Chrysler's recall remedy will replace the clutch ignition interlock switch on all affected vehicles with a switch with a more robust design. 

One of the MY 2006 complaints involved a fatality that occurred when a young child was able to start a MY 2006 Ram 3500 truck that was parked with the transmission in gear, without depressing the clutch. The diesel engine started and the vehicle moved forward under power running over another child resulting in fatal injuries.

NHTSA's Office of Defect Investigations has more detail: (Investigation: PE 14-013)

ODI has received three vehicle owner complaints (VOQs) alleging incidents of engine crank or start when the clutch was not engaged due to clutch interlock switch failure. The complaints involved 1 model year (MY) 2004 Dodge Ram 2500 truck and 2 MY 2006 Dodge Ram 3500 trucks equipped with manual transmissions. One complaint (VOQ
10566076) involved an incident that occurred when a child was able to enter the vehicle and start the ignition without depressing the clutch. The vehicle then moved forward striking another child resulting in a fatality. A second complaint (10533996) described an incident that occurred when the engine was cranked without the clutch pedal
depressed while an individual was standing directly in front of the vehicle performing work under the hood. The clutch interlock failed to prevent the engine from cranking, which resulted in vehicle movement into the pedestrian performing work under the hood. The individual was knocked to the ground, but did not report any injuries. 

Based on what is available, it seems that a new ignition interlock switch included a spring with a different steel than in previous switches. It is not clear to me if the new switch was a new design, or a new supplier's switch, or if the switch was a carry over but the spring contained the defect of having the wrong steel.
The problem does not seem to have been a production quality issue, but rather a design related failure. Here are some of the questions I would have:

• Is the new spring steel a "normal" selection?  In other words, has the new steel been used before, or on an approved list? If the steel was "new" there should have been a heightened test schedule.
• Was the new switch with the new spring steel tested to confirm it meets durability targets? What was the test schedule?
• How open to Chrysler was the new switch design?

These types of failures seem to fall back on the old tried and true system failures.

The intertwining of family malfeasance into corporate Chaebol dynasties has been further revealed in ongoing investigations into the Nut Rage case. Prior posts are here (lessons learned) and here (the stink of bad management).
YonHap News reports that an internal Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT) audit into their own investigation of the Nut Rage case has revealed improper conduct and has led to the reprimand of eight ministry officials.  (YonHap News)

Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport

The transportation ministry said Monday that it will reprimand eight ministry officials involved in the recent investigation into the "nut rage" case for their unfair manner favorable to the former vice president of Korean Air Lines Co. 

The ministry investigation had concluded Cho Hyun-ah, the former vice president of Korean Air, did in fact cause a scene, but that an order to turn the plane around to its boarding gate to drop off the head purser had come from the captain of the flight. 

Based on such a conclusion, the ministry had filed a complaint against Cho with the prosecution on suspicions of causing a disturbance aboard a flight, which carries a maximum penalty of a fine of 5 million won (US$4,555), presumably a petty amount for the daughter of Korean Air chairman Cho Yang-ho.

The prosecutor's office apparently had enough information from from its own investigation to charge Cho Hyun-ah with larger crimes:

Two accounts of aviation safety regulation violations, including coercion and interference in the execution of duty that led to a change in flight plan, crimes punishable by a prison term of up to 10 years.

I am surprised at the pace of the recognition and response to the improper behavior of the MOLIT officials. Nut Rage only occurred on December 8.

This evidence of the overbearing power of the Chaebols into Korean regulation and public safety government offices can only feed fuel to the anti-nepotism movement in Korea.

The Consequences of Russia's Crisis on Manufacturing

I was wondering what the effects of Russia's falling ruble and the drop of oil export revenue would have on the manufacturing sector.
Due to the lower value of the ruble, manufactured Russian exports would be less expensive and therefore beneficial to any importer to purchase. Demand for Russian exports should increase and mean Russian factories can run at a higher capacity. Except, of course, for the international economic sanctions that have been imposed on Russia.

The US sanctions are laid out in two Executive Orders issued in March, and an extending order to those two EOs:

Utilizing these Executive Orders, the United States has steadily increased the diplomatic and financial costs of Russia’s aggressive actions towards Ukraine. We have designated a number of Russian and Ukrainian entities, including 14 defense companies and individuals in Putin’s inner circle, as well as imposed targeted sanctions limiting certain financing to six of Russia’s largest banks and four energy companies. We have also suspended credit finance that encourages exports to Russia and financing for economic development projects in Russia, and are now prohibiting the provision, exportation, or reexportation of goods, services (not including financial services), or technology in support of exploration or production for deepwater, Arctic offshore, or shale projects that have the potential to produce oil in the Russian Federation, or in maritime area claimed by the Russian Federation and extending from its territory, and that involve five major Russian energy companies.

This means that the sanctions affecting manufacturing are primarily targeted at military and energy producing entities.  

In September the US Treasury Department detailed further specific sanctions against defense & energy related industry and banks:

Treasury today has also imposed new sanctions and strengthened existing sanctions targeting firms operating in Russia’s defense sector. 

 Determination about Russia’s Defense and Related Material Sector and Imposition of Sanctions against Rostec.  Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew today made a determination under E.O. 13662 that persons operating within Russia’s defense and related materiel sector may now be subject to targeted sanctions.  Following Secretary Lew’s determination, Treasury issued a new directive that imposes sanctions on Rostec, a major Russian conglomerate that operates in the defense and related materiel sector.  Directive 3 pursuant to E.O. 13662 prohibits transactions in, provision of financing for, and other dealings in new debt of greater than 30 days maturity issued by Rostec, and its 50 percent or more owned subsidiaries, effectively cutting it off from U.S. debt financing.

•         Rostec is a Russia-based state-owned holding company for Russia’s defense industry.  Rostec produces, develops, manufactures, and exports civil, military, and dual-purpose high-technology goods, and is involved in the manufacturing of weapons and military equipment.  Rostec-held subsidiaries manufacture and export military products valued in the billions.  Treasury designated Rostec’s Director General, Sergei Viktorovich Chemezov, on April 28, 2014, pursuant to E.O. 13661.

Designation of Additional Defense Technology Companies under E.O. 13661.  Treasury has also designated and blocked the assets of five Russian defense firms under E.O. 13661 for operating in the arms and related materiel sector in the Russian Federation.  The firms designated today under E.O. 13661 include OAO ‘Dolgoprudny Research Production Enterprise,’ Mytishchinski Mashinostroitelny Zavod OAO, Kalinin Machine Plant JSC, Almaz-Antey GSKB, and JSC NIIP.  The designated firms are responsible for the production of a range of materiel, from small arms to mortar shells to tanks.  As a result of today’s actions under E.O. 13661, any assets of these entities that are within U.S. jurisdiction must be frozen.  Additionally, transactions by U.S. persons or within the United States involving these entities are generally prohibited.

•         OAO ‘Dolgoprudny Research Production Enterprise’ is a Russia-based company, which is primarily engaged in the production of weapons and ammunition, including the Buk missile system, known in the West as “Gadfly” or SA-11 or SA-17.

•         Mytishchinski Mashinostroitelny Zavod, OAO is a Moscow-based company that has produced weaponry and equipment focusing primarily on anti-aircraft missile systems and chassis for tracked military vehicles.

•         Kalinin Machine Plant JSC is a Russia-based, state-run company involved in the production of special purpose products such as weapons, ammunition, and combat anti-air missile system facilities for the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.  Kalinin Machine Plant JSC produces artillery guns for infantry and anti-air defense and specializes in the production of launchers and anti-air missiles.

•         Almaz-Antey GSKB is a Moscow-based subsidiary of the Almaz-Antey Concern, which was designated under E.O. 13661 on July 16, 2014.  Almaz-Antey GSKB designs and manufactures air defense systems for the Russian Ministry of Defense.

•         JSC NIIP is a Zhukovski-based Russian defense industrial firm owned by the Almaz-Antey Concern.  JSC NIIP develops anti-aircraft defense systems, including on-board radar systems for MiG and Sukhoi fighters, and anti-aircraft missile systems for land forces, including the KUB and BUK systems.  

The US and EU sanctions seem to be fairly well coordinated and close in substance.  The EU sanctions reported in September are contained in a far more legalese laden document than the US's EOs, but the BBC reports:

The EU sanctions announced on 12 September targeted Russia's state finances, energy and arms sectors. These are sectors managed by the powerful elite around President Vladimir Putin.

Russia has invoked their own sanctions in response to the EU and US sanctions. 

In August the BBC reported, "Russia is imposing a "full embargo" on food imports from the EU, US and some other Western countries, in response to sanctions over Ukraine."

In December, in response to the plummeting ruble, Russia began to restrict grain exports. (Bloomburg), "Futures jumped to the highest since May last week after an exporters’ association said Russia denied certificates that grain sellers and buyers need. The government will draw up proposals for export duties on grains in the next 24 hours, Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich said today. "

Recognizing the complexity of the interlinking economic and commodity pieces of the puzzle, what effect could all of this have on manufacturers?

The Observatory of Economic Complexity is an MIT Media Lab website focused on distributing international trade data in a visual form.  The information for Russia shows that the top export items from Russia are:

The top 20 export items contained no manufactured items that were not a commodity or material. All of the oil based exports are sanctioned and now Russia is self-restricting some grain and food exports with tariffs designed to try and keep those items within Russia and the price stable for their own citizens. The tariffs are generally seen as a overall negative impact to the health of the Russian economy.  Vox has a good summation:

The Russian government's inclination to reduce grain exports does tell us something pretty clear about the Russian economy. The desire to shelter ordinary Russians from higher food prices is completely understandable. But a cheaper currency leading to more robust exports is one of the major channels through which a country is supposed to bounce back from an adverse shock in the global economy.
If the dollar value of Russian oil exports is going to fall, then Russia desperately needs exports of something else to come in and fill the gap. If that "something else" isn't going to be grain, then what's it going to be? The world is not exactly clamoring to get its hands on Russian manufactured goods or to sign up for VKontakte accounts. Curbing wheat exports is a fine idea if the oil price decline is just a passing storm that ends in the near future. But if oil goes into a multi-year period of relative abundance, these kind of measures will only make it harder for the Russian economy to adjust.

There does not seem to be a strong Russian manufacturing export industry that can benefit from the cheaper ruble and aid in Russia's economic recovery. Is there any Russian company that can benefit from this crisis?

Patrick Stewart is having FUN

Everyone loves Patrick Stewart.  Since his stint as Jean-Luk Pickard he is an iconic figure.
I first noticed Patrick was having fun, personal goofy fun, when I saw this video in August 2013:

 "Shh.Hush.You are here to learn, not to talk."
He is schooling his fiance, Sunny Ozell, on double takes and demonstrates the single, double, triple, and the exceedingly difficult quadruple take.   Notice Sunny's feet on Patrick's shins.  And, Patrick has apparently had a few nips of something strong.  I imagine it is a fine whiskey.  The pair seem to be having a great time.

Today I say another video by Sunny.  Patrick grudgingly agrees to wear a magic elf hat and he cannot help but react.  Good on him and Sunny.

By the way, Sunny Ozell is the singer Madameozell.  Patrick and Sunny have been engaged, reportedly, since March 2013.

Ford Mustang 2015 - Wins Detroit Free Press Car Award

On December 25th the Detroit Free Press announced that their award for Car of the Year goes to the new 2015 Ford Mustang. Says Mark Phelan: "The 2015 Ford Mustang also gets my vote for North American Car of the Year. The winner of that award will be announced Jan. 12 at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit."

New from the ground up, the 2015 Mustang combines the pony car's ageless appeal with the latest technology and contemporary design. The result is the first Mustang consciously created to be sold around the world, a turbocharged global ambassador of American design, manufacturing and technology.

ford.com

The Mustang is produced at the Ford Flat (Michigan) Rock Assembly Plant. From Ford Media:

• In 2013, nine years after moving Mustang production there, Flat Rock Assembly Plant celebrated the 1 millionth Mustang built at the facility.
• In the last year, the plant has been transformed. As part of a $555 million investment, it has added a state-of-the-art, fully flexible body shop to allow multiple models to be produced on the same line, supporting Ford’s flexible manufacturing efforts. Other technologies recently incorporated at Flat Rock include three-wet paint process, dirt detection and laser brazing.
• In addition to Mustang, Flat Rock Assembly Plant also produces Ford Fusion. The facility has approximately 3,000 employees working two shifts at full line speed.
• Flat Rock Assembly Plant has been producing vehicles since 1987, when it opened as Mazda Motor Manufacturing USA and built Mazda MX-6. Ford purchased a 50 percent share in the facility in 1992, and it was renamed AutoAlliance International. Over the years, the plant has produced Mazda 626, Mazda6, Mercury Cougar and Ford Probe.
• For the first time in its 50-year history, Mustang will be available globally to customers in more than 120 countries around the world.
• The addition of a right-hand-drive Mustang to Ford’s global vehicle lineup will allow the iconic pony car to be exported to more than 25 right-hand-drive markets around the world, including the United Kingdom, Australia and South Africa.

Those of you who travel I-75 can see the plant to the west of the highway. You may remember the plant used to be a Mazda plant and then was called Auto Alliance.

Nut Rage and the Stink of Bad Management

Part of the original Nut Rage story was the issue of nepotism within the Korean Chaebols and the controlling families.

The heirs to these families are largely exempt from the normal protocol for being hired and promoted. According to the Hankyoreh’s survey of 15 major chaebol, 28 members of the third generation of these families on average joined the companies at the age of 28.1 and became executives, reaching the highest run of the company, at the age of 31.2. In other words, after joining the company, it only took them an average of three years to be appointed executives.This is absurdly short considering that it generally takes 22.1 years for a new employee fresh out of university to be promoted to the level of executive, according to a survey of 219 companies released by the Korea Employers Federation in November.Even worse, the members of the third generation have largely accumulated the wealth that they need to inherit the management rights of these companies through expedient means such as work funneling - a practice whereby subsidiaries in a single group give large amounts of business to each other.

The Hankyoreh By Lee Jeong-hoon, staff reporter

Now about 20 days later the Korean authorities are seeking an arrest warrant for Cho Hyun-ah, the executive who became enraged and the daughter of the CEO and founder of Korean Airlines.  She is charged with a list of crimes. What is interesting to me is that the list of crimes includes what appears to be obstruction of justice charges. And, there are purportedly others included in the charges of obstruction of justice. (Yonhap News) bold is mine

Charges against Cho include violation of the aviation law, coercion and interference in the execution of duty, said prosecutors at the Seoul Western Prosecutors' Office probing the case
During questioning by prosecutors last week, Cho had flatly denied that she had physically assaulted the chief purser, prosecution officials said.
The prosecution office, however, concluded that she had pushed the flight attendant, based on the testimony of passengers and other flight attendants at the scene.
The prosecution office also sought an arrest warrant for a company executive, only identified by his surname Yeo, on charges of ordering employees to delete an initial report of the incident.
A Seoul court is scheduled to hold a hearing early next week to review the prosecution's request and determine whether to issue an arrest warrant for Cho, court officials said.
Also Wednesday, the prosecution office raided the residence and the office of a transport ministry official accused of leaking some details of the ministry's investigation into the incident.
The transport ministry official surnamed Kim, who formerly worked for Korean Air, is suspected of having made illegal contact with a Korean Air executive dozens of times over the three days after the ministry opened its probe into the incident on Dec. 8.

Does this result seem quick to you?  The incident was only 20 days ago.  Good job!

Keurig Mini Plus Failure - Design or Quality?

Keurig announced a major recall yesterday.

WATERBURY, Vt., Dec 23, 2014 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- After receiving reports of hot liquid escaping from MINI Plus Brewing System units during use, Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. (Keurig) contacted the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) and Health Canada to begin the process for a voluntary recall. The Company has received approximately 200 incident reports related to the approximately 7.2 million MINI Plus units in the U.S. and Canada, which equates to an incidence rate of approximately 0.003%.

Keurig States:

What Occurs?Hot liquid could escape from certain MINI Plus Brewing System units during use. Keurig has determined that this event is more likely to occur if the brewer is used to brew more than two cups in quick succession. Action RequiredPlease contact us immediately to obtain a free repair kit which resolves the potential issue.In the meantime, you can continue to use your brewer. We recommend you avoid brewing more than two cups in rapid succession and maintain an arm’s length distance from the brewer during the brewing process. 

The question is,what is the defect and is it design based or quality based?
Information available:

• Did the recall take too long?  CBS's Mike Lipka has an interesting report:
• Under federal law, companies are required to report to the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission when a product risks causing a serious injury. Generally speaking, a machine that sprays steaming hot water would appear to have that potential.
• Most recalls are issued without a single incident, let alone injury. Sometimes, there are a handful of problems -- enough to let a company know that reported issues with a product aren't flukes, but rather a possible defect. And then, every so often, a recall comes only after a great many problems have been reported.
• It looks like a fix was implemented in July 2014: 
• The systems being recalled are the MINI Plus Brewing System units with model number K10 (formerly identified as B31) produced prior to July 2014 

• Repair Kit Includes: (MoneyCNN) The kit will likely include "a brewer handle attachment and a replacement K-Cup holder which prevent hot water from escaping," spokeswoman Suzanne DuLong said.
• What is the purpose of the repair? What is the defect?
• The root causes of the problem are what?  Does anyone have information?  I will update as I find out.

Here is, perhaps, an unrelated complaint from Oct 2013. 

The Last Shoe Falls On Latest Takata Airbag Recall Effort

The latest recall effort to include driver side airbags from Takata has finally been agreed to by BMW: (The Detroit News)

In total, 10 automakers have now recalled more than 14.6 million vehicles with Takata air bags since 2013. The automakers met earlier this month in Romulus to discuss hiring an outside engineering firm for independent testing. NHTSA also has hired an outside firm for testing.

Automakers still don't know the root cause of why inflators in some air bags explode, throwing shrapnel at drivers and passengers. Most — but not all of the exploding inflators — have been in hot, humid areas like Florida.

Takata has repeatedly argued there is no scientific basis to expand the recall nationally.

Messy.  Messy, messy, messy.

Innovations in Whiskey Production

Good whiskey takes years of aging.  Each distiller has different techniques to produce their own brand. Perhaps spurned by the increased interest in whiskey some new distilleries are experimenting with new techniques to produce good whiskeys at less then the 8 to 10, to over 20 years traditional brands take.

Nobody trades more on whiskey that is aged slowly for a long time than the company’s president Julian Van Winkle. His 23-year old Pappy Van Winkle is the Holy Grail for many bourbon collectors — fetching up to $3,000 a bottle — and he believes that the quality comes from the geographic and climatological advantages of Kentucky. “One of the beauties of our climate is that it is so miserably hot in the summer and cold in the winter,” says the cultishly followed pappy of Pappy. “This is good for whiskey since we get better extraction and absorption from the barrels over the seasons. It’s been said that one year in Kentucky is worth five years of aging in Scotland.” FoodRepublic

Chris Chamberlain at FoodRepublic.com writes about several innovative whiskey producers.

Tuthilltown Spirits founded in New York’s Hudson Valley in 2003, was an early advocate of innovative aging techniques. Rather than using the industry-standard 53-gallon oak casks, they aged their Hudson Baby Bourbon in barrels as small as three gallons. The logic is that the increased ratio of surface area to volume allows for more surface contact between the wood and the whiskey. Translation: Speed aging. To get the maturation going even more, Tuthilltown pumps low-frequency sound waves through their aging room to keep the liquid agitated — like dancers waiting for the drop at a dubstep show. The results are a whiskey that isn’t just palatable after only four months, but that is actually wining awards

For a few hundred years whiskey production (Scotch, Irish, Kentucky, Tennessee, etc) has been based on tradition. Now there is a constant stream of new distilleries and small batch whiskeys.  

Here is an example of a new whiskey producer from Texas that purports that the process is traditional, eschewing new techniques : (Austin Chronicle)

The husband-and-wife team of Nick and Amanda Swift co-founded Swift Distillery in October 2012.
The Swifts spent years traveling, researching, and solidifying their business plan and recipe, before the first batch of Swift Single Malt was finally released in late October 2014. 

Although there seems to be something up with the water:

Thanks to Amanda's scientific background and attention to detail, the water is controlled down to the molecular level to match the composition of Scotland's water..

If my math is right this means this whiskey has been aged for 2 years maximum.  but I have read that whiskeys need 3 to 5 years minimum to be palatable. 

I have had some small batch whiskey.  So far, I have not had a good one.  Time will tell.

One Less Reason To Talk

LA Times reports that Coca-Cola is doing away with voice mail.

All but 6% of employees at Coca-Cola's Atlanta headquarters and nearby technology plaza recently opted to shut off their landline voice-mail systems. The expectation is that without voice mail, employees will have one less thing to check in on. Many had already expressed a preference for doing away with it, the company said.

The main driver behind this project is not cost savings. It is changing the tools and methods in which we communicate as a company," spokeswoman Amanda Rosseter said in an emailed statement.
Alternative methods include email, texting, and calling cellphones.

Are you finding it harder to talk to people?   Emails seem to be the 1st choice of communication for most people.  Now texting or instant messaging is very common?  Seeing someone in person? Less likely.  Chance they will pick up a call?  Some people do, and some don't.

How Many New Solar Projects Will There Be?

LGE-KU.com

A solar power project was just approved in Kentucky .  This project was first proposed when oil was at above $100 per barrel.  Now at $60 per barrel oil is much cheaper and solar is relatively more expensive.

From the KY Public Services Commission:

In an order issued Friday, Dec. 19, the PSC authorized Kentucky Utilities Co. (KU) and
Louisville Gas & Electric Co. (LG&E) to build a 10-megawatt (MW) photovoltaic solar array at the E.W. Brown Generating Station in Mercer County. A megawatt of generating capacity produces enough power to supply about 800 average homes.
Friday’s order approves an agreement reached by the two utilities and two other parties
to the case: the Sierra Club, and Kentucky Industrial Utility Customers Inc. The PSC found the agreement to be consistent with its own analysis of the case. The Kentucky Office of Attorney General was a party to the case but did not sign the agreement.

The request was made by LG&E and KU to the KY PSC in August 2014. (LGE-KU)

The Telegraph's  Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor. has an excellent article explaining the Russian economy's very tough week.

The combination of lower oil prices and international sanctions due to the Crimea theft have led to the fall of the ruble to the dollar. Now riding at about 60 to the dollar it has lost half is value in a year. Russia's central bank has responded with some economic measures to bolster the ruble, but will have other negative impacts.

  A last-ditch attempt to defend the exchange rate by raising interest rates to 17pc failed within hours, yet the shock is surely enough to set off a chain of corporate failures and push banks over the edge.

And CNN reports over the weekend an interview with Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi. 

"If they want to cut production they are welcome, we are not going to cut, and certainly Saudi Arabia isn't going to cut," al-Naimi said. " [That] position we will hold forever, not [just] 2015."

Russia is in a tough pickle.  There is no  oil price relief in sight. There is little Russia can do to relieve sanctions except withdraw from the Crimea. There may be some room for negotiation around the cease fire already negotiated but not adhered to, but at this point I think there is a credibility issue that  will result in no quick easing of sanctions. Russia's internal economy is weak due to an over reliance on oil and mineral exports. Hopefully for the sake of the world economy Putin will come to the table and work out a win-win and hang up his nationalistic saber.

Neradzinsky Russian Bear

Why Saudi Arabia Said They Would Still Let It Flow

Roger Bootle at The Telegraph has a nice summary of the fall in oil prices and the whys and the why nots.

Three factors have come together to produce this big drop. The first is the slowdown in the world economy, led by China, but reinforced by the sluggishness of the eurozone. The second is increased supply, principally due to the shale fracking revolution in the US. And the third is the collapse of cohesion in Opec.

North Korea Dishes it Out, But Cannot Take It

In light of the recent North Korean reaction to the movie comedy The Interview, it is a little surprising to see North Korea's own propoganda displayed from hypocritcal point of  view.

These cartoons are apparently published by the North Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).  Directed at South Korea's former President (February 25, 2008, to February 25, 2013) Lee Myung-bak.

The earliest image search result I could find of this poster is from March 2014:

This next poster was discussed in an article in The Economist, April 2012:

"Those who cannot understand Korean will have no difficulty in deciphering their rough intent. The clever slogans however might be missed. The first translates as “Let's tear Rat Myung-bak to death!”, the Korean word for “rat” rhyming as it does with the president's surname. South Korean satirists had been making use of this euphony for years; it's probably now time for them to pick a new joke."

The  Economist article references a North Korean News article which is behind a pay wall.






Further searches reveal other posters:

This above poster continues the "rat" theme and was found on a Weibo.com (a Chinese Twitter-like website), as were these following examples:

Takata タカタ Airbag Failure Modes, Effects, Causes, and Root Causes - Humidity and Moisture

The overall Takata タカタ airbag recall effort baffles me. I have only been able to pick out bits and pieces of the specific defects from the news. Different articles seem to focus on different problems. It is confusing. I want to make sense of it all and develop actionable PFMEA items.
As I noted in April 2013, Takata stated that the airbag problem is caused by:

1) excess humidity was allowed into the propellant wafers.  I am not sure if this occurred during manufacture or in the warehouse.
2) less dense propellant wafers.  I am not sure if the low density is only caused by poor machine capability, but now Takata states that there was an auto reject AR that was able to detect poor compaction, and therefore low density, but the AR could be turned off by the operator.
The result of both problems is that the when the airbag is triggered the propellant can burn too fast.  If the burn is too fast, the pressure gets too high too fast.  And if the pressure is too high then pieces of the airbag assembly can blow off.  Here is Takata's letter to NHTSA.

It appears that the 1st item, HUMIDITY, could be treated at least two ways.

1st. In manufacturing the HUMIDITY could be built into the canister.

Failure mode: 

1. Moisture level within the propellant wafer is above allowed level
2. Moisture level within the canister is above allowed level

Failure effects: 

Humidity can lead to moisture in the propellant and over time moisture can deteriorate the propellant and lead to quicker combustion, excess pressure during combustion, housing rupture and debris generation, and injury to a vehicle occupant

Potential Causes: 

1. Propellant compound humidity too high
2. Propellant wafer exposed /absorbs humidity (prior to sealing in canister)

3. Humidity/Moisture sealed inside canister with propellant wafer

2nd. In the field the humidity could be a result of environmental isolation failures.  I am picking these items from a NY Times article describing some of the first efforts by Takata to determine what happened in the first incident in 2004. In my mind the split or ruptured housings could be a stand alone cause of the housings breaking apart and generating debris, or the splits/ruptures could allow humidity into the propellant and causes rapid combustion, excess pressure, and the debris generation.

Two of the airbag inflaters Takata had retrieved from the junkyards showed cracks and the start of “rapid disassembly” during the tests, Takata’s preferred term for explosion, according to the two people. They said Takata engineers at the time theorized that a problem with the welding of the inflater’s canister, intended to hold the airbag’s explosives, made its structure vulnerable to splitting and rupturing. The two people said engineers designed prototypes for possible fixes, including a second canister to strengthen the unit.

As described, the weld and canister may have been designed wrong, but I am going to conjecture at the welding process and possible impacts. I do not know what type of weld is used.

Failure mode:
1. Wrong steel tube used in canisters. (Reuters)
2. Part that is not welded completely (Reuters)
3. Housing damage from weld operation. (damage needs better definition)
Failure effects: 

1.Wrong steel can allow incomplete welding or housing to split/rupture over time in the field, allowing humidity into the propellant. Moisture in the propellant leads to rapid combustion, excess pressure, and the debris generation, and injury to a vehicle occupant.

2. A missing or incomplete weld can allow humidity into the propellant. Moisture in the propellant leads to rapid combustion, excess pressure, and the debris generation. (or incomplete welds could cause other effects such as misdirected inflator gas and bad airbag deployment.  Or maybe a missing weld could cause the housing to fragment without the humidity effect)
Potential causes:

1. Wrong steel: Similar steel used in the plant, poor material handling process and confirmation

2. Incomplete welding: cycle interrupt, start up piece, PM piece, etc...  lots of causes

3. Without knowing the welding used...  It is hard for me to say what damage the welding could do to cause the housing to split/rupture in the field (assuming the split/rupture was not there from the beginning)

Possible controls (prevention and detection)

Process Control Prevention

• Compound Moisture Content: dehumidifier, start up process, time
• Propellant Wafer Moisture Content: wafer forming work cell is sealed and humidity controlled(?). At this point I am thinking the whole workshop needs to be humidity controlled.  There might be a wafer cure or dry process.
• Moisture Content within the canister: Assuming the wafer has the correct moisture content, you would need to control the sealed canister assembly and weld work cells or have a humidity controlled workshop.
• Canister Steel Tube: I will assume the correct steel was specified and that the plant process allowed the wrong tube to be selected from stock and used in production. Preventions here would include, ideally, not have two similar tubes with two types of materials.  Either commonize or change the tube designs so they cannot be interchanged. Short term preventions could include bar code tube stock and bar code read before usage on the line.  Simple manual confirmation won't suffice.
• Incomplete Welds: Welding is a robust process in many ways, but has many ways the process can fail. Preventions range from weld tip maintenance, parameter controls, part preparations...  there are too many to mention and would need to be detailed for the machine and weld type.
• Welding Damage to Canister/Housing: Parameter control.  Repair control. This item needs more information.

Process Control Detection

• Compound Humidity: humidity sensor checks  or 100%
• Wafer Moisture: Wafer moisture audit.
• Canister Moisture: Audit?
• Correct Steel: I do not know what the difference is between the two steels at the Takata Monclova plant are.  There are some tests that can be done on the finished part.  The best plan would be to prevent the chance of mixed steel tubes.
• Incomplete Weld: Usually for welds there is a pull requirement.  But, that is just an audit. Also, cross sectioning helps confirm the parameters. But again, it is an audit and usually just shows what the normal weld looks like.  For the purpose of incomplete weld leading to moisture in the propellant you need a good leak test. (A leak test  would pass a weak weld that might crack later in the field)
• Housing Damage: I am not sure about the details here.

Looking at the range of failure modes and causes and the possible controls it seems to me the process could have been far more robust in terms of controlling moisture getting into the propellant.  I would love to see the PFMEA from 2000 and how it evolved over the years.

The Reuters article also reported:

Before June, the prior recalls were linked to problems in the way that the explosive propellant packed into Takata's air bag inflators had been handled between 2000 and 2002, not issues with the inflator now under review by NHTSA. Between June and August, Honda and General Motors (GM.N) recalled another 96,000 vehicles for a separate defect after determining Takata workers at the Monclova plant had put the wrong part into some driver's side inflators.
That defect came to light after GM was sued by a Georgia woman who said a Takata air bag in her Chevy Cruze hit her with such force in a minor accident in October 2013 that it left her blind in one eye. 

In April 2011, Apud told other Takata supervisors that chewing gum had been found in an inflator, one of what he called several "grave problems" in inflator production at the Monclova plant.

The Takata saga leaves me frustrated. Looking in from the outside it seems the problems could have been prevented, and then once they were missed they could have been robustly fixed.  Missed opportunity after missed opportunity.

Takata Airbag Recall Widens

Now Chrysler is expanding the scope of the recall:

After resisting for several weeks, Chrysler issued a statement today that it will recall 3.3 million older vehicles globally, including nearly 2.9 million in the U.S., as demanded by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. This brings the total to almost 3.7 million affected vehicles.

The recall includes Chrysler's popular 2004-07 Ram pickup as well as the Dodge Durango, Charger, Magnum, Dakota and Chrysler Aspen and 300 as well as the Mitsubishi Raider pickup. Detroit Free Press

The dates of the affected vehicles now extend into the 2007 model year. I am still confused.  There seems to be no definitive root cause or means to isolate affected airbags. The recalls before were at least trying to capture airbags around the defective incidents and in areas where the environment was at play.  As loose as the prior recalls were, what is the justification for this new series of recalls?

The recall previously was limited to Hawaii, Florida, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on the premise humidity is a contributing factor.

Chrysler (just officially renamed FCA US LLC), notes the inflators in its vehicles are not from the same batch as ones involved in fatalities in the vehicles of other automakers.

"More than 1,000 laboratory tests have been performed on these components," Chrysler says in its statement. "All deployed as intended, but FCA US continues to study the suspect inflators, which are not used in the company's current production vehicles."

Takata Airbags - How Far and Wide?

The Takata airbag problems that first hit my radar in early 2013 were never contained. (my post from April 2013)

The Detroit news summarized recent additional recalls.  As of October NHTSA said 10 automotive manufacturers have issued recalls affecting 6.1 million vehicles in the U.S. with potentially defective airbag inflators. (Freep)

Ford Motor Co. said Thursday it will expand a driver-side air bag recall nationwide, adding 447,310 additional vehicles as demanded by the U.S. government — the third of five automakers to do so.

The air bags can send shrapnel into drivers and passengers. Until now, most of the vehicles recalled were in high-humidity areas. 

Key lessons that I highlighted at the time: 

1. Track your material.  In the case of Honda, the location of specific lots of wafers could not be tracked which caused wider ranging searches.  In another specific additional recall, Honda lost track of a few thousand service parts resulting in recall notices being sent to hundreds of thousands of customers for serial number inspections of previously repaired cars.
2. Do a good investigation of problems.  When the 1st incident occurred there should have been an effective problem solving exercise.  However, it seems that there were some gaps in the process. As a result the recalls were slow to occur and covered too few suspect vehicles. This resulted in higher costs and risk to customers.  Did I mention at least one person died from this issue?

Because the root cause was not specifically identified and airbags with those defects caused by the root causes were not identified the recalls have continued to expand since 2013.

In early and mid December 2014 Takata released a Chairman's Statement and an Open Letter, neither of which goes beyond buzzwords and details exactly what happened to cause the incidents.

We have expended extraordinary resources to respond to the reports of inflator ruptures. Our engineers have conducted a top-to-bottom review of our manufacturing procedures and exhaustive analyses of potential root causes. We have addressed issues as they have been identified and have made improvements in our products and production methods where warranted.

Takata is still looking for potential root causes.  Nissan explains the effects of the root cause: "The propellant could potentially deteriorate over time due to environmental factors [due to many years in high humidity conditions], which could lead to over-aggressive combustion in the event of an air bag deployment. This could create excessive internal pressure within the inflator and could cause the inflator housing to rupture."

But why could the propellant deteriorate? We still do not know if it is due to compaction problems (density) during manufacturing, or excess humidity during manufacturing?   We do not know how high humidity areas of the country seem to exacerbate the problem?  Doesn't the fact that high humidity environment has an affect mean that there is a problem with the propellant environmental containment system?

The slow rate of progress and lack of investigation process still baffles me.

Does your vehicle need attention?  Here is a NHTSA site where you can do a VIN search for recalls.

Key Manufacturing Related Items from NTSB 787 Battery Fire Report

Key Manufacturing Related Items from NTSB 787 Battery Fire Report:

I am having trouble opening any of the NTSB sites, so I do not have a link to the report at the moment. I am linking to a previous post I made about the Dreamliner Battery

​

The NTSB report on the Boeing 787 battery fires is worth looking through.  I picked out some items to highlight related to what  I am interested in, manufacturing and quality.

1. Tiered Supply Chain Management
2. Failure to Identify and Control Failure Modes
3. Weakness on End Of Line Tests and Inspections

1. Tiered Supply Chain Management:

NTSB noted that the battery was contracted by Boeing to Thales, who subcontracted the battery to GS Yuasa, with Boeing's approval. 

Boeing did not conduct any audits of GS Yuasa before the incident and relied on Thales to audit its subtier suppliers.85 After the incident, Boeing sent an audit team to Thales and GS Yuasa (and KAI) to review the management of subtier suppliers, quality of manufacturing and business processes, and adherence to Boeing standards. The audit found 17 items of noncompliance with Boeing requirements. Most of the noncompliance items at GS Yuasa involved adherence to written procedures and communication with Thales and Boeing regarding authorization for proposed procedural and testing changes for the battery.

85 Boeing had a source inspector at GS Yuasa, but the inspector was contractually limited to determining whether specific inspection and checklist items, as detailed in agreements among Boeing, Thales, and GS Yuasa, met minimum quality standards. Any issues that the inspector found had to be routed to a US Boeing representative to coordinate through Thales.

2. Failure to Identify and Control Failure Modes:

The NTSB auditors recognized "perturbations" of the electric foil as a nonconformance. In the report, a perturbation is defined as a change in the electrode foil nominal form due to compressive buckling.

The NTSB, having identified perturbations as a defect, conveyed:

some of the cell manufacturing processes were not consistent with industry practices.117 For example, production of wound prismatic (rectangular-shaped) battery cells is typically performed on a flattened elliptical or rectangular mandrel, which reduces the chance for perturbations and folds during winding, but GS Yuasa used a cylindrical mandrel during the winding process.

Debris/FOD (foreign object debris):

Two of the welding operations—ultrasonic welding of the current collectors to the winding and tungsten inert gas welding of the cell header to the cell case—occur in an area where internal cell components are also assembled. Welding can generate FOD in the form of weld spatter and small metallic particles that become airborne. No physical shielding was used at the tungsten inert gas weld station to isolate this FOD-generating process from adjacent FOD-sensitive processes, such as those involving internal components of nearby open cells. Even though the ultrasonic welding machine incorporated a vacuum system to mitigate the amount of FOD generated, this process was observed generating airborne FOD.

Creases

​ and Wrinkles​

​NTSB Concludes:

​

​

Industry research on lithium-ion battery hazards showed that, about the time that the LVP65 cells were being manufactured, cell failures in various industries had been caused by, among other things, internal faults resulting from manufacturing defects (Mikolajczak and others 2011). However, GS Yuasa did not establish its cell manufacturing process to minimize the potential for manufacturing defects or develop formal inspection criteria of the cells that would reliably identify any defects that were introduced during the process.

​3. Weakness in EOL (end of line) Tests - CT scan and Visual Inspections

At

​ 

the end of the cell production process the assembly is subjected to a 

x-ray computed tomography (CT) scan

​ to confirm that the

 current collectors were properly welded to the winding edges and that 

​debris​

 was not ​

​enclosed within the cell.​

However, the resolution settings of GS Yuasa’s CT equipment was such that many internal cell features, including individual winding layers, could not be identified during the NTSB’s visit to GS Yuasa’s facility. As a result, perturbations in the windings and small-sized FOD and burrs might not be recognized with the CT equipment used at the time of the NTSB’s visit. GS Yuasa stated that it was not aware that FOD might not be visible on the company’s CT scans.

GS Yuasa’s CT scans also did not detect features that the NTSB, TIAX, and UL identified during this investigation. For example, TIAX’s and UL’s DPAs of cells from the main battery on the incident airplane found cell windings with numerous wrinkles, folds, and creases.

The wrinkles and folds can modify the anode-to-cathode ratio locally, resulting in lithium deposits on the anode surface.

The NTSB also made this observation about YG Yuasa's quality control:

GS Yuasa performed most of its quality control inspections after a cell was fully manufactured and indicated that less than 1 percent of manufactured cells were rejected. This low rejection rate could be the result of few defects to detect; however, most of the evidence (that is, poor internal manufacturing steps along with the lack of a formal inspection for manufactured defects) indicated that GS Yuasa’s inspection process did not adequately screen for defects that developed during the manufacturing process. GS Yuasa’s checks during the manufacturing process relied on visual inspection rather than formal sampling processes that included rejection or acceptance criteria.

Vigilance decrements might also have played a role in the inadequate inspection process. GS Yuasa indicated that personnel involved with cell manufacturing for LVP-8-402 batteries worked 8-hour shifts. The visual inspection tasks performed by these personnel were vigilance tasks.121 Human factors research on inspection indicates that, as time on task increases, defects are more likely to be missed, especially if they seem to rarely occur (Fisher and others 2006, 997-1024)   

The greatest performance decrements are expected within the first 30 minutes of time on task; during that time, performance can be reduced as much as 30% but is typically reduced no more than 10% (Teichner 1974, 339-353). A 30% performance decrement is more likely for a highly detectable signal (defect) during a 3-hour period.

​