Wednesday, April 29, 2009

We Knew This

No surprise here, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the first quarter GDP data with some analysis:
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of 6.1 percent in the first quarter of 2009, (that is, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter), according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP decreased 6.3 percent.
The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from exports, private inventory investment, equipment and software, nonresidential structures, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a positive contribution from personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

So, PCE was up?
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.2 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 4.3 percent in the fourth. Durable goods increased 9.4 percent, in contrast to a decrease of22.1 percent.
Non durable goods increased 1.3 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 9.4 percent. Services increased 1.5 percent, the same increase as in the fourth.


We are all waiting for the bottom to arrive. The slight increase in PCE was more than overwhelmed by real estate.

One interesting note, it looks like Federal expenditures have decreased in the first quarter as well?
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 4.0 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 7.0 percent in the fourth. National defense decreased 6.4percent, in contrast to an increase of 3.4 percent. Non defense increased 1.3 percent, compared with an increase of 15.3 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 3.9 percent, compared with a decrease of 2.0 percent.

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